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The updates below confirm that the big problem for the 5x 7-dog trial is that far too many bets are at the maximum level, while the 50x alternative has risked the max only 3% of the time and right now has just one monster bet in play each day.
It stands to sense that the more series we have betting the max each day, the more we are at the mercy of the wild fluctuations in the DWR that can be seen day after day and week after week.
It's the same as flat or fixed betting, in other words, and we all know what a bad idea that is.
I talked about objectivity last time, and the failure of two successive bets in the 50x trial make it tempting to argue that when the wager gets above a certain level, a more rigorous selection process should apply.
But I have my doubts about that.
When results for each of the seven separate series or lines in the trial are analyzed, we see that there is little variation between win rate percentages and win values.
The 50x data shows that winning days outnumber losing ones, but what is much more important, the average win value still, after two crappy days, exceeds the average loss value by almost 20%.
The same does not apply for the 5x trial, where there have also been more up days than down, but the AWV is just 77% of the ALV. Bad, bad news...
Here are today's updates...
An important reminder: The only person likely to make money out of this blog is you, Dear Reader. There's nothing to buy, ever, and your soul is safe (from me, at least). Test my ideas and use them or don't. It's up to you.
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